US President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to Canada are prompting Ottawa to recalibrate its foreign policy, with India emerging as a key strategic and economic partner. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to visit India soon to strengthen bilateral trade and cooperation, following strained relations during the Justin Trudeau era. The move aligns with Canada’s broader “trade diversification” strategy, aimed at reducing reliance on the US and shielding its sovereignty from Washington’s protectionist measures.
Carney Visit To India Planned
According to Indian High Commissioner Dinesh Patnaik, Carney’s visit will likely take place after India tables its Union Budget on February 1, probably in the first week of March. Negotiations are expected on uranium, energy, minerals, and artificial intelligence. The pivot comes alongside India’s own trade pressures from the US, including tariffs of up to 50%. The timing coincides with the European Union signing its “mother of all deals” with India, underscoring a shifting global trade landscape.
High-Level Engagement
The Ottawa-Delhi engagement follows productive discussions between Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand and Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar during India’s 77th Republic Day celebrations. The two leaders discussed deepening cooperation in AI, economic partnerships, and high-level exchanges. Minister Anand emphasised Canada’s commitment to doubling non-US exports within 10 years, saying, “That is why we went to China, that’s why we will be going to India and that is why we won’t put all our eggs in one basket.”
Trump’s Tariff Threats
The renewed focus on India is also driven by US protectionist policies. Trump has threatened a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if China reroutes exports through Canada, following a Canadian deal allowing 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles annually. The US-Canada trade relationship is massive, with exports of $280 billion and imports of $322 billion in the first ten months of last year. Experts note that, while a military threat is highly unlikely, economic coercion remains a key risk, including potential US demands for access to Canadian resources and interference in domestic issues.
Both India and Canada face high tariffs from the US, prompting accelerated talks for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) targeting $50 billion in bilateral trade by 2030. Strengthening ties with India also provides Canada a stable, democratic partner in the Indo-Pacific region and diversifies access to energy, minerals, and critical resources.
Strategic And Economic Stakes
Canada is bolstering defense spending and engaging in high-level diplomacy with India to secure long-term trade and energy partnerships. Tim Hodgson, Canada’s energy minister, will attend a conference in Goa and hold meetings with Indian industry and government officials, exploring deals on critical minerals, uranium, and liquefied natural gas. Minister Anand stressed that Canada-US relations remain strong, but trade diversification is essential for national resilience. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted the highly integrated North American market, warning that Canada should not become a conduit for cheap Chinese goods entering the US.
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