- Ukraine targets Russian supply lines, placing Crimean corridor under fire.
- New AI-equipped drones increase effectiveness, raising Russian vulnerability.
- Russia will adapt; Ukraine must exploit window and expand tactics.
This article was originally published in Ukrainian.
Ukrainian forces are fighting for control over the Russian army’s key supply routes in the occupied territories of Ukraine. According to Ukrainian military officials, newly developed medium-range weapons are now reaching Russia’s logistics routes beyond front lines.
Ukrainian drones were reportedly conducting surveillance and attacks in the area around Mariupol. That would mean that sections of the land corridor connecting Russan-occupied Ukrainian territory with the Crimean penninsula, some 160 kilometers (99 miles) away, are now under fire control. As proof, the Ukrainian military has published numerous online videos purpotedly showing burned-out Russian military vehicles along the road leading through occupied territories in southern mainland Ukraine to Crimea.
“During the bloody and protracted war from 2022 to 2026, the creation of a land corridor to Crimea was seen as Moscow’s greatest potential achievement,” Ihor Lutsenko, a soldier in the Ukrainian army and co-founder of the Air Intelligence Support Center, posted on Facebook.
“But it is now clear that this is a fleeting gain,” he wrote, adding that “in reality, Ukrainian drones are already circling over the corridor, which civilians are no longer allowed to use. Crimea is becoming an overseas territory for Russia. Of course, we won’t leave it at that.”
A turning point in the war in Ukraine?
According to Mykola Bielieskov, an adviser at the Ukrainian National Institute for Strategic Studies, full control over Russian supply routes is still a long way off. “If we had full control, Russian troops in the south would feel differently,” Beleskov told DW. However, he did note that vulnerability among Russian troops was increasing.
According to Bielieskov, photo and video evidence indicate that Ukrainian attacks have become more effective at medium range. “The Russians are less active now, even though their area of operations is quite large and there have been heavy attacks,” he said, adding that “we can’t speak of a turning point yet, it just means that the situation isn’t getting any worse for us.”
New military technology provides a respite for Ukraine
Experts attribute the Ukrainian military’s progress to technological breakthroughs. Among other equipment, Ukrainian defense forces now have drones from the Ukrainian manufacturer Wild Hornets that are equipped with built-in AI systems.
However, this only provides operators with a limited window of opportunity, as military expert and historian Mykhailo Zhyrokhov explained. The author of numerous publications on military aviation and conflicts in the post-Soviet region assumes that Russia will soon prepare additional mobile fire groups and a comprehensive protection strategy for the roads along the Crimean corridor, complete with nets to defend against drones.
However, Zhyrokhov explained that it is to Ukraine’s advantage if Russia is forced to take such countermeasures. “Every defensive measure requires resources, and this is an additional burden for the Russians,” he told DW, adding that Russian forces will be forced to invest money and divert resources to secure this route.
In his view, the effectiveness of Ukrainian attacks currently hinges on the element of surprise, which will eventually fade. “As soon as something effective emerges, countermeasures follow,” he said. Four years of war had shown that, Zhyrokhov noted.
“That’s why this moment must be exploited to the fullest, while the Russians have not yet established effective air defense along this section of the front,” he said.
Increasing Ukrainian pressure
Zhyrokhov listed several specific steps to increase pressure on the Russian army’s logistics.
The first is to expand drone attacks, which have already proven effective. The second step is to equip drones with heavier warheads to destroy Russian armored vehicles. And finally, Zhyrokhov proposed targeting new objectives and pointed to the infrastructure along the hundreds of kilometers of the route. Attacks on gas stations and repair shops could disrupt the Russian army’s logistics more systematically than the destruction of individual vehicles, he argued.
Military expert Bielieskov highlighted additional factors, noting that many tasks must be carried out simultaneously on the front lines. “No matter how advanced the technologies are, they cannot reach their full potential without specialists,” he said, explaining that robot-assisted warfare remains heavily reliant on human personnel.
“In my opinion, this is precisely where one of the greatest limitations lies,” he said, adding that there is a shortage of trained personnel in all units dealing with medium-range operations.
According to the expert, all of these challenges contribute to the broader personnel shortage at the front, meaning that even the most effective technological solutions could not reach their full potential.
(Disclaimer: This report first appeared on Deutsche Welle, and has been republished on ABP Live as part of a special arrangement. Apart from the headline, no changes have been made in the report by ABP Live. for DW)
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