- Pakistan and Taliban-ruled Afghanistan engaged in open conflict since late 2025.
- Pakistan launched ‘Operation Ghazab lil Haq’ targeting TTP in February 2026.
- Afghan Taliban retaliated with drones; ISIS-K expands global operations.
Since late 2025, a volatile conflict has unfolded between nuclear-armed Pakistan and Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, escalating into what can only be described as an “open war.” Despite various attempts at mediation by international actors such as China, Turkey, and Qatar, tensions reached a critical boiling point in February of this year, raising alarming concerns about the stability and peace of the entire region. India, for its part, has opted to remain aloof, avoiding any form of dialogue with Pakistan while observing the relentless violence through the Taliban’s lens. This situation underscores the chilling reality of terrorism that is playing out just beyond its borders.
The roots of this escalating conflict trace back to October 2025, when Pakistan launched airstrikes that penetrated into Kabul to target bases of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). However, it was in February 2026 that Islamabad officially declared an “open war” against the Afghan capital, by launching ‘Operation Ghazab lil Haq’, igniting fears of a broader and more destabilising confrontation. This dire situation continues to evolve as the spectre of warfare looms large, casting a shadow over regional security.
At the heart of the ongoing conflict lies Pakistan’s persistent claim that the Afghan Taliban is providing sanctuary to the jihadist militant organization known as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), or the Pakistani Taliban. This accusation is rooted in Pakistan’s belief that the TTP is conducting its operations from bases within Afghan territory, posing a significant security threat to Pakistan.
The TTP, which has carried out a series of deadly attacks within Pakistan, has been a major concern for the Pakistani government and military. In response to these allegations, the Afghan Taliban has consistently refuted claims of harbouring the TTP, asserting their commitment to preventing the use of Afghan soil for launching attacks against neighbouring countries. This denial underscores the complexities of regional security dynamics and the challenges in achieving lasting peace between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The ongoing war has caused significant devastation in Afghanistan, which continues to face severe economic, social, and political challenges. Additionally, it has reignited several dormant militant groups, exacerbating their ideologies. With the conflict in Iran serving as a backdrop, the region has become infested with terrorists and various militant organizations, some of which pose a serious threat to India’s security. It has also strengthened the Islamic State–Khorasan (ISIS-K) – a deadly terrorist group that was formed more than a decade ago, in 2014–2015, by breakaway fighters from the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) and Al-Qaeda.
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When Pakistan launched Operation Ghazab lil Haq in February 2026, it defended this action by asserting that it was specifically targeting encampments utilized by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISIS-K), both of which posed significant threats to its national security. This marked a significant escalation in the persistent tensions along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
In a notable counteraction, the Afghan Taliban launched a series of unprecedented cross-border drone strikes deep into Pakistan’s provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa earlier this month. This operation was remarkable not only for its boldness but also for its implications on regional security dynamics. The Taliban justified these incursions into Pakistani airspace by claiming they were acting against what they characterized as active ISIS-K planning centers located on Pakistani soil. This justification underscores the complex and contentious nature of the security situation in the region, highlighting the shifting allegiances and rivalries among these militant groups.
As the localized border conflict intensifies, the ISIS-K has effectively expanded its operational scope. The group is not only focused on instigating violence within South Asia but has also begun orchestrating and executing large-scale attacks that reach far beyond the region. Reports indicate that ISIS-K is actively involved in plotting targeted strikes and mass-casualty events in diverse locations, including Russia, Iran, Turkey, and various European countries. This alarming trend points to a growing ambition within ISIS-K to establish its presence on a global scale, posing serious challenges to international security and counterterrorism efforts, several intelligence reports indicate.
Major Threats For India
Pakistan has levied accusations against India for “backing” the TTP. Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has specifically pointed fingers at Afghanistan, asserting that it is functioning as an Indian “proxy” in this regard. He argues that India’s backing of the TTP is part of a broader strategy to destabilize Pakistan.
Since the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in 2021, India has gradually been working to recalibrate its diplomatic approach towards the Afghan Taliban. This strategic shift has coincided with a notable decline in the diplomatic relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. In a significant move reflecting this new relationship, India officially reopened its embassy in Kabul in 2022, signalling its intention to maintain a presence in Afghanistan despite the Taliban’s rule.
Moreover, in October 2025, New Delhi hosted a diplomatic delegation from the Afghan Taliban. This visit indicates India’s willingness to engage diplomatically with the Taliban, further complicating the already strained dynamics in the region, particularly between Pakistan and Afghanistan. As these developments unfold, tensions in South Asia continue to rise, highlighting the intricate interplay of relationships among these nations.
Meanwhile, while China has sought to mediate the conflict, India has positioned itself as a supporter of the Taliban government in Afghanistan. New Delhi has consistently emphasized the importance of respecting Afghanistan’s sovereignty, while reproaching Pakistan for projecting its internal security issues onto others. However, what New Delhi has mostly overlooked are the risks associated with spillover effects.
Among many aspects, the first casualty of the ongoing war had been a complete derailment of the development roadmap that was chalked out between New Delhi and the Taliban in Kabul last year, including plans to ramp up development projects, building connectivity networks and increased people-to-people linkages.
In Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), significant unrest is unfolding amidst a military crackdown in the wake of a ban on the Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC). Protests initially sparked by economic difficulties have escalated into a volatile uprising against the political and military leadership of Pakistan. The Pakistani government has placed the blame for this upheaval on India, a narrative that New Delhi has strongly dismissed as a “desperate attempt” to shift focus away from Islamabad’s own administrative and humanitarian shortcomings. In response, Pakistan’s security forces have initiated social media campaigns to connect JAAC leaders with Indian intelligence, branding the civil rights protesters as “externally funded actors.”
Recent intelligence reports indicate that ISIS-K is expanding its influence within India, particularly through cyber-recruitment and digital radicalization. Indian counter-terrorism agencies have identified India as a significant ideological target for ISIS-K, although they do not currently view the country as an active operational base for their activities. New Delhi is believed to be conducting an internal assessment to determine whether ISIS-K has established any physical infrastructure, such as training camps or organized command networks, particularly in regions like Jammu and Kashmir. The primary method of threat from ISIS-K is predominantly online.
The group employs heavily encrypted messaging platforms and publishes its English-language propaganda magazine – Voice of Khorasan – to specifically attract and recruit Indian youth. Their strategy includes inciting lone-wolf attacks and fostering communal discord, making it essential for counter-terrorism efforts to focus on monitoring and countering online radicalization to mitigate this evolving threat.
India’s involvement in the ongoing conflict may involve mediation or initiating dialogue, especially given its growing ties with the Taliban in Afghanistan. The security situation in Jammu and Kashmir remains volatile, and increasing tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan could result in militant elements crossing into the region. It may be beneficial for India to develop a strategic roadmap aimed at addressing these issues, similar to approaches currently being pursued by China in consideration of its national interests.
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