- H-1B visa lottery selection rates significantly increased this year.
- Fee hikes and reduced sponsorship applications shrank the applicant pool.
US companies have reported unusually high selection rates in this year’s H-1B visa lottery, marking a sharp break from previous years, according to early data shared by immigration firms with Bloomberg Law. Selection chances have risen to over 50% in many cases, compared to roughly one-in-three odds earlier.
What explains the jump in H-1B selection rates?
Immigration lawyers say the surge is largely driven by a sharp fall in the number of applicants after the Trump administration introduced a $100,000 fee on foreign hires under the visa programme. The cost has discouraged universities, hospitals, and tech firms from sponsoring overseas candidates, significantly shrinking the applicant pool.
Has the visa fee changed hiring behaviour?
Yes. Law firms report that many employers have either reduced international hiring or skipped the lottery altogether. Companies instead prioritised candidates already in the US, leading to higher success rates for those who did enter the system.
How much has the H-1B application pool declined?
Estimates suggest total registrations for the 85,000 available visas dropped to between 195,000 and 235,000 this year—down as much as 43% from the previous year and the lowest since the online lottery system began in 2020.
A revamped selection model introduced under the Trump administration now prioritises higher-paid and more senior roles, allowing some applicants multiple entries based on wage tiers. However, experts say the shrinking applicant pool had a bigger impact than the rule change itself.
Did the changes improve chances for high-skilled workers?
Yes. In some cases, applicants with advanced degrees in top wage categories saw selection rates above 70%, suggesting the system is increasingly favouring senior and highly skilled professionals.
How this affect Indians?
Immigration firms told Bloomberg that the winning chances increased this year because the pool was smaller this time, because of the $100,000 fee. After the fee was imposed, universities and hospitals halted almost all their international recruiting as they can’t pay the exorbitant fee.
Many tech firms also opted out of hiring from abroad, which accounted for four in 10 new H-1B employees in recent years. Tech firms pushing major investments in artificial intelligence also decreased their foreign hires this time. Many companies are still waiting and watching if there is any change in the rule or any court order halting the visa fee.
An increase in winning chance is good news for highly skilled workers of Indians as the new system works in favor of high-paid, experienced workers. So for overall Indians, it might bre not that great impactful but the highly skilled and experienced workers would be in much benefitted space.
For American workers too, it means entry-level jobs will not go to foreign workers.
What happens next for H-1B applicants?
Even successful applicants face more scrutiny, with updated USCIS forms requiring detailed job and wage justification. Experts warn that the process is becoming more complex, with higher stakes for both employers and workers.
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